ACUS11 KWNS 050217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050217=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern ND...northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667...

Valid 050217Z - 050415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667
continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous severe gusts associated with a bow echo will
likely continue to the northeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #667.=20
A new downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by 10pm
CDT (03 UTC). Peak gusts 65-80 mph are forecast.

DISCUSSION...A compact but intense bow echo continues moving
northeast along and immediately to the northwest of a surface trough
oriented from southwest to northeast. Surface conditions ahead of
the bow echo are warm with temperatures in the mid-upper 70s and
dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 60s. A RAWS site in Sioux
Co., ND sampled a peak gust of 88 mph around 0050 UTC with the bow
echo.

KBIS (Bismarck) 88D VAD shows a strong Rear Inflow Jet with the bow
echo with 60-kt flow less than 1km AGL. Despite some boundary layer
cooling through the remainder of the evening, steep 850-500 mb lapse
rates (7.1 deg C/km per the Bismarck 00 UTC raob), strengthening QG
forcing for ascent via the approach of a mid-level shortwave trough
and strengthening LLJ into southeast ND, the dynamic character of
the bow echo will combine to be favorable for a continuation of a
risk for severe gusts into the late evening. The peak gust
magnitude will probably be weaker than in southern ND but 65-80 mph
are forecast with the more intense downbursts.

..Smith.. 09/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Fwu-NqfUTBQfwe89W3BjTKBNTcSxneu3NPd2Yejz52xAYU9QR6bKhrfzoCJxy5Q5MDWOKQyl= 9b8CAVcMefSCjRwrpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47450076 48989885 49469510 49059474 48619503 46109882
46129917 46269956 47450076=20


=3D =3D =3D
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