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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2078

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 4 18:19:21 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041819
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041818=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2078
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of the Lower/Middle MS Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041818Z - 042045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe downbursts and marginally severe
    hail are possible over portions of the Lower/Middle MS Valley
    through the afternoon. A watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates a weakening
    midlevel wave lifting northeastward over the ArkLaTex region.
    Preceding this wave, regional VWP data shows a belt 30-kt
    south-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreading the Lower/Middle MS
    Valley. Beneath the belt of enhanced midlevel flow and weak DCVA,
    weakly confluent low-level flow and diurnal heating of rich
    boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 70s surface dewpoints), are
    supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
    over western/central AR into LA. This activity should continue spreading/developing northward and eastward as the midlevel wave and
    related DCVA continue overspreading the area.=20

    Relatively steep deep-layer lapse rates (sampled by a recent Little
    Rock ACARS sounding) and around 20-30 kt of effective shear should
    support loosely organized multicell clusters and perhaps transient
    rotating updrafts. Strong to severe downbursts and marginally severe
    hail could accompany the stronger storms that develop through the
    afternoon, though the threat is expected to remain too
    isolated/sporadic for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Mci1VQnCPXN8ooHxaTeLfFQr8rdT9pLtIyGRBIJJ0mc4abIrsxGcw_762_ld2HsI9hWKWyvo= lQf8L6ZNO7uelHzAOA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34969349 34489358 33489377 33019377 32639352 32329318
    32029270 31959230 32019182 32399138 33479087 34949067
    37249068 37609094 37799135 37869201 37749285 37419334
    37069359 36599360 36089352 35599346 34969349=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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