ACUS11 KWNS 310416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310416=20
NCZ000-310615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...Outer Banks of NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 663...

Valid 310416Z - 310615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 663 continues.

SUMMARY...The remaining risk for a tornado appears to be
increasingly confined to the Cape Lookout vicinity and perhaps
eventually including Cape Hatteras over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of miniature supercells is located south of
Cape Lookout over the continental shelf waters as of 1215am EDT
(0415 UTC). This activity will likely move ashore the beaches of
Cape Lookout over the next hour as Idalia continues northeast along
the northeast SC coast/Grand Stand. The most favorable area for
enlarged hodographs has shifted away from KLTX (Wilmington, NC 88D)
and is currently centered near KMHX (Morehead City, NC 88D). The
airmass near the immediate coast is supporting weak buoyancy
sufficient for low-level mesocyclones and a tornado risk. As Idalia
continues northeast, this focused corridor of favorable
shear/buoyancy will shift northeast towards Cape Hatteras before the
potential for tornadoes diminishes.

..Smith.. 08/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6AezS67rdS4KYlgg9yCEBmQflmRvGCtdu-NsKV5DH9qiFEnZL_zUu3cZw6c6J3FFQbY91ZWGa= tadguk5_6ycPPmEgBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON 34837690 35327580 35327555 35237540 35067543 34487667
34537692 34687699 34837690=20


=3D =3D =3D
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