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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 31 03:20:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 310320
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310320=20
    NDZ000-310515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1020 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

    Areas affected...western ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 310320Z - 310515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (peak gusts 50-65 mph) will be
    possible for the next few hours across western ND as a thunderstorm
    band moves east.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of
    thunderstorms near the northeast MT/northwest ND border region and
    another linear cluster in southwest ND immediately ahead of a potent
    mid-level shortwave low/trough. There has been a history of
    ASOS-measured strong to severe gusts in eastern MT in association
    with this convection during the past couple of hours. The recent development/intensification of thunderstorms has coincided with a
    long-lived thunderstorm cluster and its associated outflow reaching
    a more moist airmass located over western ND (lower 60s deg F
    surface dewpoints compared to 40s to lower 50s over eastern MT).=20
    Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates evident on the 00z Glasgow, MT and
    Bismarck, ND raobs (7 to 8 deg C/km) and strong large-scale forcing
    for ascent will continue to promote strong to severe thunderstorm
    activity. The confined spatial and temporal extent of the expected
    threat will preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7D3xWE_UHHpFbulpkRPyN7H8gede_fOryLHkvmK1k2WfHW22wiNkmxguWTyvLvgwL7FX0FJxC= myMW7m4LeYtNHTxQUI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48300389 48820398 49050265 48470182 47150142 46540204
    46450317 48300389=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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