ACUS11 KWNS 301503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301502 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-301645-
Mesoscale Discussion 2065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023
Areas affected...the South Carolina and adjacent North Carolina
coastal plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 301502Z - 301645Z
CORRECTED FOR LINK TO HURRICANE
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with a risk for producing
tornadoes appears likely to begin overspreading the South Carolina
coastal plain by 1-3 PM CDT. A new Tornado Watch will likely be
issued within the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...The circulation center of Idalia is now well inland,
but maintains a north-northeastward migration around 15+ kt. With
this continued motion, it should approach the Waycross GA vicinity
through 17-19Z, with a corridor of downstream near-surface warm
advection overspreading the South Carolina and adjacent North
Carolina coastal plain. This likely will include a tropical moist
boundary layer continuing to spread inland with surface dew points
rising through the mid/upper 70s F. Despite probable further
weakening of Idalia, downstream low-level shear will remain strong,
with RAP forecast soundings exhibiting enlarging clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs coincident with the moistening and
destabilizing boundary layer by the 17-19Z time frame. This
environment will support continuing potential for convection with
embedded low-level mesocyclones with an attendant risk for
tornadoes.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/30/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qy0sk-vYq4yFUFpNLCCmcInU8QFe9B24HoDSeM87P4j5Dh70gGqd7AVICaW9i35j89WT1OkB= PrNZNGNeuYTFabVOc0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 32958109 33887993 33847806 33297824 32398014 32178072
32958109=20
=3D =3D =3D
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