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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 29 23:44:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 292344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292344=20
    FLZ000-300215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

    Areas affected...Western Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 292344Z - 300215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop across the western
    Florida Peninsula this evening. Once the tornado threat begins to
    develop, a tornado watch will be needed, likely later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Hurricane Idalia will continue to move
    north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
    The outer bands of Hurricane Idalia will begin to impact the western
    coast of Florida in a few hours. As these bands move into the
    coastal areas later this evening, strong low-level shear will be
    maintained as a low-level speed max brushes the coast. The latest
    WSR-88D VWP at Tampa Bay has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500
    m2/s2, and RAP forecast soundings increase low-level shear along the
    western coast from south to north over the next few hours. This
    suggests that discrete cells embedded in the outerbands of Idalia
    may develop tornado potential. The threat is forecast to gradually
    transition northward to the area southwest of Gainsville, Florida by
    late evening.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tqX61c2KWxErzY8ujVBbgcDELUXcmEPxSq-D_IbhFSkj2_rgqFeJznz12IALg_NXR7MsBMjm= sLrErF1beUKFQim9Y8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29338228 29528253 29578272 29558293 29478306 29318308
    29198306 29008291 28468281 28018293 27588285 26718242
    26418192 26758124 28508194 29338228=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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