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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 25 23:56:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 252356
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252355=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-260230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2049
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0655 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

    Areas affected...Illinois...Southwest Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 252355Z - 260230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue to develop across
    central Illinois. Storm coverage will increase over the next few
    hours, as a cluster moves east-southeastward across southeast
    Illinois and southwest Indiana. Large hail and wind damage will be
    the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed
    across parts of region.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has an axis of maximized
    low-level moisture along a boundary, extending east-southeastward
    across south-central Illinois. Surface dewpoints near this axis are
    mostly in the 70s, although low 80s F are present in far southern
    Illinois and western Kentucky. This is contributing to a strongly
    unstable airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000
    J/kg range. Thunderstorms have quickly developed near the
    instability max in west-central Illinois over the last half hour.
    Short-term model forecasts increase convective coverage, and move a
    cluster east-southeastward across southeast Illinois and into
    southwest Indiana over the next few hours. The instability, combined
    with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates,
    evident on forecast soundings, will result in a wind-damage threat.
    Supercells will also likely be capable of large hail.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TZwgE46N1_bbrhmGGaYxBxN5hOsabokaNlfFyiP0JAiZb1gf42h-7qHDK3qUAJXHj3xuloXn= cQjm8VUxXaeJBAP3Ig$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 38438830 38538743 38878720 39448723 39878774 40258914
    40509016 40339051 40119065 39789058 39268981 38438830=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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