ACUS11 KWNS 250134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250133=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 250133Z - 250300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely
shortly.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move
southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within
hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into
portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania,
western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this
line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep
layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be
supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with
isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream
watch will be needed shortly.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zqk7J3M-MhxGkWbbnQGVVrPmbxqfIeg2EFtu0w-ZS6cLphgKtaNAtB00Vsuj4xqIi8NH-Mwu= Tv9tk5FHky1rjpgwZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964
43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957
40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301
40868378 41138471 41518508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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