ACUS11 KWNS 241820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241820=20
NDZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Areas affected...North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241820Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may pose a large hail risk over the
next several hours prior to more robust thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Building convective towers have been noted within a
band of mid-level altocumulus across western ND over the past hour
in GOES daytime RGB and low-level water vapor imagery. The zonally
oriented and slab-like characteristic of the altocumulus band and
the rapid east/northeast cloud motions suggest that this activity is
elevated, likely rooted near 700 mb where recent forecast soundings
show fairly steep lapse rates (near 8 C/km) and mid-level RH between
60-75%. A few lightning strikes have been noted with the deeper
towers, indicating that a gradual deepening trend is ongoing -
possibly being driven by broadscale ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough.=20

This elevated convection has not be captured well by most guidance,
and with some mixed-layer inhibition lingering across the region, it
remains unclear if this activity will strengthen enough to pose a
severe threat in the near term. However, with diurnal
destabilization ongoing, it is possible that more robust cells
continue to intensify and pose a large hail threat through late
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest the nocturnal inversion should
be mixed out by around 19-20 UTC, which may be when more robust
intensification takes place. Additional convection is probable along
an approaching cold front later this afternoon - most likely
around/after 22 UTC, which will likely pose a more robust severe
weather threat given stronger mesoscale ascent along the boundary
and favorable timing with peak diurnal heating. While unlikely,
trends will continue to be monitored for the near-term need for a
watch.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QgkLGr1A3VoVVoaA4dppQ7hhfUiLvVTjVY8ayE2mVXQGPs6b37vT1ovUkLhXb0yy08_j8R7J= ZGrUSAg9FCxNRYcuHg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47570356 48860129 48950055 48879998 48439926 47579872
47129893 46969933 46860176 46920285 46990338 47130369
47300374 47570356=20


=3D =3D =3D
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