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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 24 00:03:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 240003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240003=20
    NDZ000-240130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2030
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northwest and north-central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653...

    Valid 240003Z - 240130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across parts of northwest into north-central North Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and satellite imagery
    depict a modifying warm frontal zone extending east-southeastward
    across parts of north-central ND. Along and south of the frontal
    zone, a corridor of high theta-e air is in place -- characterized by
    upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. As a
    cluster of slowly evolving/organizing storms over parts of northwest
    ND tracks generally east-southeastward through this corridor, a
    modest increase in storm intensity is possible. While a long/mostly
    straight hodograph (45-55 kt of effective shear) will favor
    organized clusters and splitting supercell structures, left-movers
    may have a tendency to drift to the cooler/stable side of the
    surface boundary. Any right-moving storms that maintain residence
    time along/immediately south of the front will pose a risk for large
    hail (up to 2 inches with maintained supercell structures) and
    locally severe gusts.

    ..Weinman.. 08/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5gZJoqCi6NqysquC35xumN_8LTwshsG1E77xlC2e3MzaBPd6CCRLYG8H49fgjSj3Y_5QhD-uz= kzyLqfY6FeM4qsFcqA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47600163 47840194 48000209 48240205 48530190 48580184
    48640161 48620147 48500112 48040051 47720039 47460056
    47390091 47600163=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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