ACUS11 KWNS 231907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231906=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231906Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving into northern Ohio will pose a risk
for damaging winds and perhaps large hail through the afternoon
hours. Watch issuance is not expected due to low confidence in the
longevity and magnitude of this threat.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms of initially modest
intensity migrating southward out of southeast MI and into northern
OH have shown an intensifying trend in IR imagery with occasional
bursts of higher VIL and vertically integrated ice also noted. Being
displaced to the east of a surface warm front, this activity is
elevated and propagating to the south/southeast along a diffuse
MUCAPE gradient draped southwestward to the OH River. Recent surface observations support the idea of elevated convection with observed
wind gusts associated with the cell over northeast OH measuring in
the 35-50 mph range thus far despite radar velocity measurements of
60+ mph within the lowest 3 km. However, this cell, as well as
upstream cells moving over Lake Eerie, are displaying reflectivity
and velocity characteristics of a gravity wave breaking event
capable of mixing stronger winds to the surface. While the
propensity for severe winds and the longevity of these cells is
uncertain (cell motions are largely towards an MUCAPE minimum), the
threat for damaging gusts, and perhaps large hail, should continue
for the next couple of hours.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gR7oNjYTc8YG0t7ZCf2WVWG1wgqV7m1FgQkKlpRwiGWmulXtVjV8vXtzN0rDNpaJXzHllJPp= iaaLFgorgG3r0-uN1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41488291 41368247 41538180 41768124 40988083 40288064
39498096 39218159 39218209 39518265 39868293 41488291=20


=3D =3D =3D
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