ACUS11 KWNS 220822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220821=20
TXZ000-221045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Areas affected...coastal South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220821Z - 221045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/gusty winds may accompany a few of the stronger
convective cells associated with Tropical Storm Harold, as will some
potential for a brief/weak tornado or two. WW issuance may need to
be considered later this morning.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite data shows Tropical Storm
Harold off the South Texas coast, moving eastward at 16 kt (please
see the latest forecasts from the NHC). Bands of convection on the
leading edge of Harold have reached the Texas Coast, and will
continue to spread onshore over the next several hours.=20=20

Over the past hour or so, a few stronger convective elements have
exhibited weak, and generally transient, low-level circulation per
KBRO and KCRP WSR-88D velocity data. While a substantial northerly
component to the surface wind persists across the entire Texas
coastal area at this time, gradual veering is expected as the center
nears the coast and eventually moves onshore. As this occurs, and
the northeastern quadrant of the storm begins affecting inland
areas, the kinematic environment may become a bit more favorably
supportive of a couple of brief tornadic spin-ups. As such, while
WW issuance is not required at this time, we will continue to
monitor Harold's evolution and movement, as it pertains to any possible/heightened need for WW consideration later this morning.

..Goss/Guyer.. 08/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HSDQcCwtfmE9sPQJ6kmFjBZWQPBJ3AZCGExR2cOXK9weB4SlAPXQ9sAl2FyDeo1GUvcEUvuK= rkvNsoDUKjORC_R4Kk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 25879739 26139781 27019820 28359807 28359656 27869632
25839665 25879739=20


=3D =3D =3D
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