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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2020

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 21 19:48:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 211948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211947=20
    AZZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2020
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest/West-Central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211947Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across south-central and southwest Arizona this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening
    cumulus across southwest/west-central AZ, between more widespread
    cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more
    persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ.=20
    This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization
    across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow
    modest destabilization across south-central/southwest AZ. Further destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and
    moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is
    expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level
    flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent
    mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt. As
    such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging
    gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will
    remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TQQfu7AhQAFMEE4d6cv29g_ibdLW3ugzCwhoyunAJcJ7bM5gvchrkloxDSO5tD62M4XdKdYw= QzCT2uBz29w_adbfYA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033
    34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973
    31411103=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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