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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 18 20:25:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 182025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182024=20
    AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-182200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2014
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

    Areas affected...Northwest Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182024Z - 182200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clustering may lead to an increasing
    potential for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Arizona
    over the next 1-2 hours. However, watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Imagery over the past hour from KESX has depicted an
    outflow boundary migrating eastward into western AZ, leading to a
    burst of convection within the past 30 minutes. This more
    consolidated line of thunderstorms will likely reinforce the outflow
    boundary and may lead to cold-pool-driven propagation of the line
    into northwest AZ. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear remain very limited
    across the region, but steepening low-level lapse rates and dewpoint depressions between 30-40 F indicate that downstream low-level
    thermodynamic profiles are favorable for downdraft accelerations via evaporative cooling. Consequently, the potential for strong to
    severe downburst wind gusts may regionally increase over the next
    1-2 hours given the increasing concentration of storms. KESX
    velocity imagery has shown a few embedded pockets of enhanced
    outflow over the past 15 minutes, which supports this general idea.
    However, given the meager thermodynamic and kinematic environment,
    this threat will likely remain fairly localized and transient,
    precluding the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 08/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CV4Stou9xP5WZ92HRzMexnZuucVPokPsIwhI_T_BM5HhHPy_nLdfDKq7kmeDO-SCS6NvfEfy= lOhsFVunOOPoppyfTA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

    LAT...LON 36841259 36421232 36031239 35791258 35611289 35471335
    35491359 35781387 36031406 36201426 36461426 36661422
    36861404 36971369 37001310 36841259=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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