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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2006

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 17 00:31:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 170031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170030=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-170230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2006
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern and Western
    Wisconsin...Western Upper Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652...

    Valid 170030Z - 170230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 652
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
    continue over the next few hours, from eastern Minnesota into
    northwest Wisconsin and far western Upper Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Duluth
    shows a continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms across
    northern Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota. This line is located
    near a cold front, along an axis of moderate instability where the
    RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
    convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with
    an upper-level trough moving eastward into the upper Mississippi
    Valley. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Duluth has 0-6 km shear near 65
    knots with strong speed shear in the lowest 2 km above ground level.
    This wind profile will continue to support a severe threat as the
    line move eastward across northwestern Wisconsin this evening. The
    RAP also has 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km suggesting a
    threat for large hail will be possible with embedded cells that
    rotate. A wind-damage threat will also be possible along the leading
    edge of the more intense and faster moving parts of the line.

    ..Broyles.. 08/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8vdJgk_dBL1TAECtW0pAd3DUYkmZrJG9fqdGbuIyb8p7X3ZpCGqGNV9YhvqZUtHNeT30xITNl= 5fx8xXH_85KOJEt_MM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 47289064 47149108 46719193 46459261 46149346 45739358
    45359330 45089274 44909176 45099072 45519000 46098950
    46658939 47088973 47289064=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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