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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2004

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 15 23:05:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 152305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152305=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-160100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern and central PA into western NY
    State

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152305Z - 160100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
    damaging gusts, small hail, and/or a brief tornado this evening.
    Storm coverage should remain low and a watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes, regional radar and satellite
    analysis showed incipient thunderstorms were intensifying ahead of
    an occluded front across portions of northern PA and far western NY
    State. Beneath a slow moving upper low, afternoon heating and
    steepening low-level lapse rates have resulted in weak buoyancy
    (MLCAPE ~500-700 J/kg) developing across the region. While not
    overly robust, a few stronger updrafts will likely persist this
    evening beneath the upper low. Vertical shear profiles are also not
    overly strong, but sufficient to support occasional storm
    organization. Storms should remain isolated in coverage, with the
    strongest capable of occasional damaging gusts and or small hail.
    Plentiful vertical vorticity may also allow for some weak updraft
    rotation with the strongest storms. Cold air funnel clouds and
    perhaps a brief tornado will also be possible. Given that storm
    coverage is expected to remain isolated and the environment favors
    only a low-end threat for organized storms, a weather watch is not
    anticipated this evening.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jj-emJgpng8eTYrdoEzCkpoPXjlxDD-Z7A8XEUMAA5lUJYjlO0Tc5l1sEyFLDOWHw6RN9F3M= 7Z0LlxPtsyT2nROiVA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41397976 41608039 41998027 42328002 43297935 43617884
    43707810 43457708 43087658 42007623 41197603 40867621
    40627651 40707678 41027696 41517719 41757768 41937850
    41977886 41707919 41397976=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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