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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2003

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 15 21:52:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 152152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152151=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-152345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2003
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

    Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern
    Alabama and southwest Georgia.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152151Z - 152345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging
    gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind
    damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a
    weather watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL
    Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of
    hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been
    noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment,
    with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to
    continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However,
    with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited
    to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2
    inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the
    strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into
    this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the
    potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather
    watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wLonKqNySlD03vQ3_e23cSZPEHkGeEG3632FPOpzDQp558bv-CBuwlxhN_FSSYAHbpfncGna= ugIrF1oDIDPwkBbcKs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454
    32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430
    30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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