1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2001

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 15 19:57:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 151957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151956=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-152130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2001
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far northern SC into NC and
    southeastern VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...650...

    Valid 151956Z - 152130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 650
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds and occasional hail
    should continue as thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon.
    Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern North Carolina may
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A few severe hail and damaging wind reports have
    occurred with convection across parts of central NC over the past
    couple of hours. Multiple small clusters are ongoing across central
    into eastern NC and far southeastern VA. Enhanced west-southwesterly
    mid-level flow and related 30-45 kt of deep-layer shear along/east
    of a cold front should continue to organize convection this
    afternoon and early evening, with a mix of clusters and occasional
    supercells remaining possible. Ample daytime heating of a very moist
    low-level airmass is contributing to 2000-3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE along
    and downstream of the ongoing convection. With steep low-level lapse
    rates in place, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing severe/damaging winds with the ongoing clusters as they move
    eastward. Isolated hail also remains a possibility with supercells.
    Given the current track of a small cluster in
    north-central/northeastern NC and far southeastern VA, a downstream
    watch that includes more of eastern NC may be needed.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 08/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xrcPdUe7sJf4tAQgz8jT5pXb0k8NFFOPf2Pcv8P3rQlEIG1V0yBRoalcubgGqfErkJ9pol3T= CizMH6NpmciLdbvUjg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34978167 36187970 36847737 36877600 35707568 35157686
    34567999 34978167=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)