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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1995

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 14 20:56:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 142056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142056=20
    OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-142300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1995
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142056Z - 142300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front may pose an
    isolated hail and wind risk this afternoon and evening. However,
    watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front across the
    Midwest have been slow to mature over the past few hours, but
    imagery from KIND has shown improving organization of a few cells
    over the past 30-60 minutes. Temperatures warming into the low 80s
    ahead of the cold front have allowed MLCAPE values to increase to
    around 1000 J/kg, and recent forecast soundings and KIND VWP
    observations show elongated, nearly straight hodographs with
    effective bulk shear near 45 knots. The strongly sheared environment
    may compensate for the otherwise marginal buoyancy and support
    sufficient storm organization for a large hail/severe wind threat.
    Initially discrete cells have shown a tendency for slow upscale
    growth, and this trend should continue into the evening hours, which
    may modulate the severe threat to some degree. Storms moving into
    central IN they will likely encounter a noted buoyancy gradient
    along a warm front, which should limit the northward extent of the
    severe threat. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given
    modest downstream buoyancy and lackluster storm organization thus
    far.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4C8ud7ltNvrnu00w7CxzWtW1HOT2oc5jEVSXSwfkBYS4oe0Z98mGUsdpiULMxJ3KYDOuGVXVk= DZF8XNv-T_DNgM0NbU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 38038831 39118739 39778695 40098660 40058573 39858490
    39498478 38868518 38298585 38028649 37858709 37788762
    37788802 38038831=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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