ACUS11 KWNS 141901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141901=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa to far northwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141901Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along an occluded front may pose
a threat for brief landspouts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway along an
occluded frontal boundary across northeast IA. Clearing skies under
the upper-level low have allowed for MLCAPE to increase to 500-1000
J/kg. Deep-layer shear is very weak, which will limit overall storm
longevity and and organization. However, low-level buoyancy may be
adequate for tilting and stretching of ambient low-level vorticity
along the boundary. Consequently, brief landspouts will be possible
for the next couple of hours as these cells mature. Watch issuance
is not expected given the limited nature of the overall threat.

..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7yu3IUL7XtlUFaae8oepq8TGJ_bNG9jPBcnqHS81Mo0QhbH9ID8_ZKYPdeZ4EVSndhPFoW7Mq= l3EqtXhOZtCXuIR5ww$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41559015 41929078 42589190 42899249 43219254 43369216
42999130 42489033 42208995 41778956 41508958 41418980
41559015=20


=3D =3D =3D
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