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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1992

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 14 17:56:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 141755
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141755=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-142000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1992
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

    Areas affected...Central to eastern Virginia and northeast North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141755Z - 142000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across central Virginia and
    northeastern North Carolina may pose a damaging wind threat through
    the late afternoon hours. Watch issuance is possible if a
    substantial severe threat becomes apparent.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 2 hours, a broken line of convection has
    slowly intensified along a diffuse trough axis across central VA
    with a notable jump in lightning activity and cooling cloud top
    temperatures over the past 30 minutes. Additional cells are
    developing across far northern NC, also along the trough axis. This intensifying trend is expected to continue amid strong diurnal
    heating downstream across eastern VA and northeast NC where
    temperatures have already warmed into the low 90s and mid-70s
    dewpoints. 12 UTC observed soundings and recent RAP forecast
    sounding all indicate that mid-level lapse rates are somewhat meager
    (near 5 C/km), and strong mid-level flow remains displaced to the
    west closer to the upper wave. Consequently, the potential for
    robust, organized convection appears modest. However, the
    combination steepening low-level lapse rates and slowly improving
    deep-layer shear through late afternoon will support a damaging wind
    threat downstream into eastern VA and adjacent areas of northeast
    NC. Trends will be monitored, and a watch issuance is possible if a substantial/widespread severe threat becomes apparent.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SPKUzILo77RvQlE9Y7p4JcHqa-RbdkbtXHn2x3aBgajiEJK2rBnSUzxL32pOHWTnQSTqy0fW= r23vu1mF35WggOXprA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 35737931 35927943 36237935 36397918 36637896 37117866
    37367856 37597850 37947856 38517856 38747838 38957793
    38897737 38497695 37947626 37337625 37017611 36527584
    36047629 35317781 35297831 35357871 35737931=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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