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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 23:34:53 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132334=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1986
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern IL into...southwestern
    IN...and far northwest KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132334Z - 140100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible along and
    south of the frontal zone through this evening. Severe coverage is
    expected to remain low and a weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2325 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
    scattered thunderstorms were slowly intensifying along a frontal
    zone across the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Early day convection
    and lingering cloud cover has resulted in stunted heating through
    much of the afternoon. As a result, buoyancy is not particularly
    large around 500-1000 J/kg despite surface dewpoints in the mid 70s
    F. A few storms have managed to develop and slowly intensify along
    the front over the last hour. Area VADs are supportive of storm
    organization with 40-45 kt of effective shear. Deep-layer shear will
    support transient supercell structures capable of isolated hail and
    a few damaging gusts. The coverage of organized storms appears low
    given the limited buoyancy and WW is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JA53TLKPMMDb0-aRzJvTgGAn61K7Tilo5Rl7mqg4K9kWGsRa-GdLvnP56cIkjn06JoltCPOl= c3VkiSURynTj9iSA9c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38458988 38878959 38898898 38708828 38498775 38238743
    37998733 37618741 37488775 37518826 37628892 37758915
    38078970 38188979 38458988=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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