ACUS11 KWNS 130600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130559=20
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-130730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...Northern NJ across NYC into Long Island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130559Z - 130730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat may persist over the next 1-2
hours. Watch issuance is unlikely due to the limited temporal and
spatial window of the threat.

DISCUSSION...A small but well-organized bowing storm cluster is
moving across northern NJ at 0555 UTC. Modest buoyancy and effective
shear of 30-40 kt may help to sustain this cluster over the next 1-2
hours as it approaches Long Island. 50+ kt velocities are noted at
less than 1000 feet AGL from the TEWR radar, though the potential
for severe gusts to reach the surface will be mitigated to some
extent by low-level stability to the north of a southward-sagging
outflow boundary that has pushed through New York Harbor and
northern NJ. However, stronger gusts capable of wind damage will be
possible, with some threat potentially extending toward Long Island
with time if the cluster maintains itself. Due to the limited
spatial and temporal nature of the threat, watch issuance is
unlikely.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bJALD2-92287AilVk8KE_OclbKqKkl2rGQJ-g6A1EeUARGKphwPdwnsnZ8rTZbpvuaNsifck= _-YRP2SUX3T5V4-SGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 40827449 41047360 40997325 40667310 40397322 40277360
40247399 40197438 40237466 40357472 40607484 40827449=20


=3D =3D =3D
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