ACUS11 KWNS 130210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130210=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-130415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...southwestern through south central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

Valid 130210Z - 130415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing some risk for strong wind gusts may
remain possible into the 10-11 PM CDT time frame, north of the
central Nebraska/South Dakota state border vicinity. However, it is
not clear that this will require a new severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a short wave trough digging into eastern
Montana, warm advection driven convection continues to gradually
spread across and east-southeast of the Black Hills vicinity.=20
Scattered stronger storms are generally focused on the
southern/southwestern periphery of this regime, from the Pine Ridge
Reservation vicinity into the Rapid City area, supported by a
continuing inflow of moist unstable boundary-layer air characterized
by sizable CAPE. However, as boundary-layer cooling progresses, the
risk for severe hail seems likely to gradually wane during the next
few hours.=20=20

It is possible that a strengthening southerly jet around 850 mb
could still focus an area of stronger lingering convection across
the Mellette, Todd, and Tripp county vicinity, which could be
accompanied by a period of increasing strong wind potential.=20
However, it is not clear that this will require a new severe weather
watch.

..Kerr.. 08/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rVpP4y4nIOc4kMg86-xosaT5vlL2ZpckaS0E6eX51qqqYWcoI1WRdBTGoavUMDFyYJqH2JwS= cjuVGF76ToAtbp2_Sk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 44380289 43770193 43690030 43199921 42860018 42900175
43040253 43760362 44380289=20


=3D =3D =3D
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