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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 13 01:02:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130102=20
    NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1976
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern PA...northern NJ...western NY/CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

    Valid 130102Z - 130230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail will
    continue this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0055, a couple clusters of strong to severe
    storms were ongoing over parts of southern NY and eastern PA
    respectively. These storms have produced several reports of wind
    damage and hail over the last couple of hours. Recent HRRR and radar
    trends suggest these storms should remain capable of isolated wind
    damage and hail into western portions of CT tonight.

    Farther south into southeastern PA, new convective development was
    noted west of Allentown. Likely in response to an increase in
    synoptic support from the approaching trough, these storms may
    continue to intensify and pose an isolated severe risk into central
    NJ over the next couple of hours. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50
    kt of deep-layer shear would support a risk for damaging gusts and
    isolated hail if storms are able to organize. However, with the loss
    of diurnal heating, there remains some uncertainty on if storms will
    be able to mature prior to nocturnal stabilization.

    ..Lyons.. 08/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vBATnigWWG_9R9opq2s3OjC-NFCxFaE_xxIk0i7_mlAo-Va95nZm4QiQEVEsNNJ37GJtqd6N= lN88UnG-_TAfd1a1Q4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40127529 40487588 40867594 41367556 42117456 42267396
    42337359 42327323 42237292 41797283 41417291 40917342
    40687367 40557383 40337406 40107433 39977464 40047526
    40127529=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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