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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 12 23:32:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122331=20
    MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-130100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1975
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0631 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern OH...northern
    WV...southwestern PA and western MD.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 634...

    Valid 122331Z - 130100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms in the southern half of WW634 will
    likely persist beyond the 01z expiration. A new watch will likely be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, several supercells were ongoing across
    parts of far eastern OH, and western PA. These storms have
    maintained intensity and should continue to do so after the 01z
    expiration of WW634. 40-50 kt of effective shear and 1500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE will favor organized storms including supercells and short
    line segments. Damaging wind gusts and hail appear likely with the
    strongest storms into this evening. Veered low-level flow in the
    wake of the earlier rounds of storms suggests the tornado threat is
    not overly high. However, a brief tornado will remain possible given
    the supercell mode and 15-20 kt of 0-1km shear. The severe threat
    will likely extend beyond the 01z expiration of WW634. A new watch
    will likely replace southern parts of the watch to cover the severe
    risk into early tonight.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fVf1nes3wCTojWKmp-4wjSipnn5A7VKDW9w_FrOVZrPI0T0YCFp9fbcuuXypDinm04lBlL0g= 20Qf3BneEZQbQy7F2U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 40337922 40347848 40297819 40107810 39757825 39547854
    39377965 39288033 39128131 39228193 39508194 39678183
    39998149 40108090 40287989 40337922=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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