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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 12 22:59:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122258=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-130030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1973
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the western and central Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635...

    Valid 122258Z - 130030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing linear cluster of strong to severe storms may
    continue to pose a risk for a few damaging gusts this evening.
    Confidence on the eastern extent of the severe risk is low.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, a linear cluster of strong to severe
    storms was ongoing across WW635 in western NC/SC. Currently, these
    storms are ongoing within moderate buoyancy, (1500-2000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE) with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Vertical
    shear is weak with area VADs showing generally less than 25 kt.
    Storms have shown a slow weakening trend with warming IR cloud tops
    and weaker reflectively cores, especially in western NC. This
    general trend is expected to continue as storms encounter a more
    stable air mass farther east. However, a few cores along and south
    of the NC/SC border have remained strong, and may continue to pose
    an isolated damaging wind risk as they track southeastward over the
    next couple of hours. The eastern extent of any severe risk is
    uncertain with the lack of broader synoptic support, but a few
    damaging gusts will remain possible into parts of west-central SC
    this evening. the severe risk should quickly wane after dark as more
    stable conditions limit the potential for strong updrafts.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8935AjgXEMAZwrMFxUa_Z-A5Ts0mlOffV_cQXDKn1l2vSLSjBgVSJJG8Abo9ZP1Y9WLfXS-Hi= DDJV7tph9dwiGXim5Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 36648142 36658115 36548093 36068078 34828073 34168084
    33648123 33548172 33558189 33688231 33978269 34288289
    34978232 35618197 36418162 36648142=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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