ACUS11 KWNS 121903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121902=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...southeastern CO...northeastern NM...southwestern
KS...and the TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121902Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon, bringing a threat for severe wind gusts and hail. A WW is
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is currently underway,
primarily focused along the higher terrain (Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in CO and NM) as well as a separate boundary-layer-mixing
regime in the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity. Updraft development
recently began just east of the terrain features in NM, indicating
sufficiently deep boundary-layer mixing and CIN erosion. Modest
lapse rates reside above the boundary layer, contributing to MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg. The shear profile is expected to remain
steady throughout the afternoon with ground-relative flow generally
less than 30 kts throughout the troposphere. However, steadily
deepening updrafts will be subject to deeper shear layers,
ultimately resulting in generally eastward propagation. Dry,
well-mixed profiles should support a primarily severe-wind threat,
with some hail potential with the strongest cores. A watch will
likely be needed at some point this afternoon to address these
threats across the region.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Z3zNqHETlPAbwJfVyq73Nq1B4wlS7AASRBz6eg54PNuB6XocST3l_UhKnZ8BlLQ4dMWl7Wky= Bq5zdbA1FBNWz_CwHA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36840477 37810450 38480372 38550187 37970078 37190023
35550008 34570039 34210127 34310285 34870392 35680456
36840477=20


=3D =3D =3D
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