ACUS11 KWNS 121614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121614=20
KYZ000-121815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121614Z - 121815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind gusts and hail are possible into
the early afternoon as thunderstorms move across the area. A watch
is unlikely in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing strong thunderstorms are currently affecting
portions of central/eastern KY. One supercell in particular -- now
weakening over north-central KY -- produced hail and damaging wind
gusts during the last couple of hours. A gradual uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and potentially damaging wind gusts as well as
hail are possible during the next few hours.

These storms are currently traversing a buoyancy axis extending north-northeastward through middle TN and eastern KY. Located along
the southern periphery of a belt of stronger mid-level flow, slight
upper-level difluence amidst a warm-air advection regime is
supporting additional updraft development ahead of ongoing storms.
Additional convective invigoration is also possible along a
congealed outflow boundary stretching from northern KY southwestward
into western TN. Short-term forecast profiles indicate a favorable
environment for updraft maintenance, including around 1500-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE (diminishing with northward extent) with relatively
straight, long hodographs in the cloud layer. Some inhibition may
remain across the area, but it appears to be eroding given surface
temperatures warming into the low 80s and hints of a Cu field
forming beneath the cirrus canopy. Relatively moist profiles and
steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km) could support locally
damaging winds and instances of larger hail. The overall threat
should be somewhat tempered by limited boundary-layer heating (due
to an expanding cirrus canopy) and relatively weak flow in the
lowest few km AGL. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but
trends will continue to be monitored into the early afternoon.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Nb1u88qhUhk8Xi6kcR0UFV19JUde-wINvxImMAySWL3bRYDcC53hW_iOdjb6nXBISUm177Ga= 4eu0KsxdsAY16FrJYg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 37288508 37708482 38048433 38148361 37998292 37598267
37028288 36688351 36598406 36638489 36638548 36848557
37288508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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