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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1961

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 12 10:17:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121016=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1961
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast MO into southern IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632...

    Valid 121016Z - 121145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue to spread
    southeastward this morning. WW 632 has been locally expanded
    downstream of ongoing storms.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing storm cluster is currently moving through the
    St. Louis area as of 1015 UTC. This cluster strengthened northwest
    of St. Louis, and became rather intense with 60-80 kt radar
    velocities noted within 1 km AGL, but preceding outflow and
    near-surface stabilization appear to have somewhat limited the
    potential for these intense velocities to reach the surface.
    However, given the current intensity and organization of this
    cluster, wind damage and localized severe gusts will continue to be
    a threat in the short term as convection spreads southeastward.=20

    Some damaging-wind potential will likely spread south of the initial
    bounds of WW 632, and the watch has been locally expanded as a
    result. Evolution of the severe threat later this morning remains
    somewhat uncertain, though some decrease in storm organization and
    attendant damaging-wind potential is possible if outflow continues
    to surge well ahead of the strongest convection.

    ..Dean.. 08/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!747SB83mAjqtmWbeeGk44cx03TFsoEAWGMV3p-lPWpLVCVGTfrYfNzmdUYuxBs4s31p5pRtq5= vKVxGmzwdWlu5Xc-dE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38549135 38718977 38918869 38728775 38228794 37668823
    37618869 37528962 37529025 37739086 37869106 38029116
    38199138 38549135=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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