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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 12 02:08:36 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120208
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120208=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-120345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1958
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0908 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

    Areas affected...parts of northern IA...and far southwest WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...628...630...

    Valid 120208Z - 120345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627, 628,
    630 continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging winds may persist for a few
    more hours this evening as storms gradually weaken. It is unclear if
    storms will continue to pose a severe risk beyond 03z.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms ongoing across
    portions of northern IA and southwest WI, have shown a gradual
    downtrend in intensity of the last 60-90 minutes. This downtrend may
    continue with the onset of nocturnal stabilization and large-scale
    ascent shifting to the east. Despite this, moderate instability and
    40-50 kt of effective shear are sufficient for storm organization
    into supercells. Low-level warm advection tied to a slight increase
    in 850 mb flow may also support additional elevated storm
    development into portions of northeastern IA over the next few
    hours. With the CAPE/shear space favorable for storm organization, a
    few of the stronger storms may persist beyond 03z with a risk for
    damaging gusts and hail. However, given the gradual downtrend
    observed, confidence in the longevity of the severe risk is very low
    with a wide range of possibilities evident in short-term
    deterministic guidance.

    ..Lyons.. 08/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EaAEICf5k6jsiO8axqRlrLab02qyODHnOgVsoXQ9tJpFFTO8e60m7NMMj7uTClY1CFW7MSFd= jJWILBZ_i9zEmRZIOw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43239463 43439329 43439241 43259121 43049081 42819064
    42619064 42489070 42399086 42219137 42129196 42159258
    42239336 42349412 42459487 42559531 42719561 43149539
    43239463=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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