ACUS11 KWNS 112348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112348=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-120145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112348Z - 120145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may maintain strength, posing a risk
for severe hail and wind into the 8-9 PM CDT time frame, before
weakening.

DISCUSSION...The supercell migrating across the Bartlesville
vicinity may have initiated in response to forcing for ascent within
a zone of weak to modest low/mid-level warm advection spreading
eastward near/north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity. More
rapid relatively recent intensification likely has been aided by
increasing inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, coincident with sufficient
weakening of strong mid-level inhibition in the peak late afternoon
heating. Aided by favorable deep-layer shear beneath 30 kt
west-northwesterly 500 mb flow, it is possible that this storm may
persist another hour or two, and continue a southeastward
propagation to the north through northeast of the Tulsa area, before dissipating as inhibition increases once again with the onset
boundary-layer cooling.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CT0YP7uqswYVBZ-0h7uQiyUS_vzFnaL46Vojr6kyMtXEv8WX6OzFgVk5IitnbslAp0STXLFG= lv3ehMjWEkLk0r9zk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...

LAT...LON 36809565 36709497 36169452 35899503 36209563 36429583
36629594 36809565=20


=3D =3D =3D
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