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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1954

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 11 23:43:04 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112342
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112342=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-120045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1954
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0642 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern MN...northern IA and western
    WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...628...

    Valid 112342Z - 120045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627, 628
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms will continue to pose a risk for
    hail and damaging gusts this evening. A downstream watch is likely
    needed east of WW627.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several severe storms, including a few
    supercells, were ongoing across portions of southern MN and
    west-central WI. The environment ahead of these storms remains
    moderately unstable and strongly sheared with area VADs showing
    45-50 kt of effective shear. This should favor continued maintenance
    of strong updrafts with a mixed mode of supercells and line
    segments. Given recent reports of significant hail and several
    measured severe gusts, storms will remain capable of large to very
    large hail and damaging gusts. Additional upscale growth into a more
    linear arrangement will remain possible this evening as storms track
    into northern IA and western/southwestern WI. The primary risk may
    shift more towards damaging gusts with time. With storms nearing the
    eastern edge of WW627 within the next hour, a new watch will likely
    be needed into WI.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FXM-Uiqtz2HIQOp5xen43G_qO-610Wgc7efP4Iu25DtftRAGWilekVf5z0_EQ17ExHQpQjbI= uolzpbkaGIKDTkoiMw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 42729134 42919462 43039504 43249518 43449516 43679501
    43929463 44859279 45379068 45359008 44628821 44238789
    43858777 42928788 42638799 42538832 42568853 42689056
    42729134=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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