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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1951

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 11 21:01:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112100=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-112300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1951
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern MN and western WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...

    Valid 112100Z - 112300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across WW 627.
    Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple strong/severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
    the northern periphery of WW 627. Several wind events have been
    reported -- including a measured 76 mph gust at in Kanabec County
    (KJMR) -- as well as hailstones up to 2" in diameter. These storms
    have evolved along/just ahead of a cold front and maintained semi-discrete/supercellular structures for the last couple of hours.
    Additional convection initiation is now underway to the southwest of
    these damaging storms. The downstream environment is characterized
    by MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and bulk shear around 50 kts. With long
    and straight northwesterly hodographs (currently observed at KMPX),
    this environment will be favorable for splitting supercell
    structures capable of producing severe hail and wind gusts. Both of
    these risks should maximize over the Twin Cities metro and the
    southeastern vicinity this afternoon. Thereafter, a gradual
    transition to a primarily wind threat is expected this evening as
    the system congeals along the cold front.

    ..Flournoy.. 08/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_XurEbYjcK-uBlPDmg_XaX_wCcYjLf1NGWdn7qRh4LhBgl0s3A7HwpuRbkTyAwy-AsvNVxDKs= YGFO2VZxfGE7iAVD1c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 44309484 44759493 45279453 45919376 46089292 46009220
    45519129 44449075 43419079 43059142 43249268 43729398
    44309484=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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