ACUS11 KWNS 112014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112014=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-112215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of northwest TX and southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112014Z - 112215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible this
afternoon and evening. Sporadic severe gusts and small hail are
possible. WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A scattered, diurnally driven Cu field has developed in
northwest TX and southwestern OK as temperatures soar to near 110 F.
RAP profiles depict a very deep, well-mixed boundary layer with
lapse rates around 9-9.5 C/km in the lowest 4-5 km AGL. Sufficient
potential buoyancy exists aloft (around 1000 J/kg) to support deeper
convective development. Inverted-V soundings will be associated with
large DCAPE around 1500 J/kg, supporting a conditional threat for
severe wind gusts with any deeper storms. This overall risk is
expected to be localized, and a watch is not anticipated.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9hnGwu2yVPjm6ddJT5h3PVpW3lK50zHRHUqDVEgCjWZEHQF4NHzlS4rFWWOOJVMD849OEEG1n= wkninoR9Rou9KeG0GI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33179926 33150017 33500087 34080131 34680131 35250098
35560027 35529926 35289807 34809735 34149717 33599769
33379842 33179926=20


=3D =3D =3D
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