ACUS11 KWNS 111856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111856=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-112100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern MN and western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 111856Z - 112100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon across central/eastern MN and western WI. Severe gusts and
large hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level jet streak, characterized by 90-kt+
westerly flow at 300 mb, is currently rotating through a shortwave
trough over the Dakotas and into western MN. Temperatures in the
upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid-/upper-60s currently reside ahead
of the shortwave in central/eastern MN. Large-scale lift ahead of
the jet streak has supported gradual updraft intensification over
the last couple of hours, with deeper development now observed in
central MN. Continued development is expected to the south of
ongoing storms, with severe hazards overspreading the delineated
area through the afternoon and evening.

Mesoanalysis suggests that some inhibition may remain in
central/eastern MN, but RAP/NAM soundings and current satellite
trends suggest any inhibition is rapidly dwindling. This should lead
to a quick increase in convective coverage in the next few hours.
This is supported by recent CAM guidance suggesting additional
development from central MN south/southwestward to around the MN/IA
border. Forecast profiles ahead of the storms feature buoyancy and
kinematic profiles supportive of supercells. Straight hodographs
will support early updraft splits, with both flanks subsequently
offering a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The threat for
large hail (up to 1-2 inches in diameter) will be greatest in the
short-term with more discrete supercells, with the severe-wind
threat increasing in coverage as the system grows upscale and
propagates into western WI later this afternoon/evening.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mmLVUtpgYTxW04b2sC78pDeVznx5F53DFRRX0MI7FRKBzHbvY8eqOdwHYL98-w9jTaVQoKQF= o1ulFMhX4zYxcFflFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 43609306 43989386 44589470 45199505 46129507 46669444
46849332 46669237 45959161 44779098 43819102 43469175
43609306=20


=3D =3D =3D
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