ACUS11 KWNS 111654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111654=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern AL...north FL...and
southern GA and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111654Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected during the
next few hours. Gusty winds and small hail are possible. Trends will
continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A remnant MCS has continued moving east-southeastward
across northern GA into SC this morning. The associated cold pool
continues to spread slowly southward through central GA, trailing
back northwestward through northeastern AL. The system precedes a
subtle mid-level wave -- evident in water-vapor imagery -- currently
moving eastward through TN. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature
as well as a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer have yielded
renewed updraft intensification along and ahead of the remnant
outflow. Given the thermodynamically supportive environment (around
3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) amidst modest kinematics, locally strong winds
and small hail should be the primary threats. Mesoscale forcing
along the remnant outflow and greater bulk shear with latitude
(around 30 kts per current mesoanalysis) suggests that these threats
are relatively greater for convection forming in the northern
portion of the delineated area. The overall threat should gradually
increase into the afternoon, with localized corridors of stronger
winds possible in time if clusters of storms become more organized.
Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance for
portions of this area later this afternoon.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VdHPFuz6H78lE0jfz9Q8UjFmeVvH1-58XUD3Z8zZ6x5F4k96V1fTpWlYfBTSbK5iMLeeEohq= f6dIPQC28Qitq30ADs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30118338 30118470 30608606 31548663 32368657 32838618
33218548 33048457 32688395 32438327 32328248 32548180
32968136 33408126 34018104 34148060 34158011 33757951
33127939 32607996 31578091 30428218 30118338=20


=3D =3D =3D
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