ACUS11 KWNS 111652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111652=20
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-111845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...north-central KS into southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111652Z - 111845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce large hail into early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface
trough ahead of the synoptic cold front in a low-level warm
advection regime. Low-level inhibition is still quite strong and
this activity is likely elevated. However, modified 16z forecast
soundings indicate large instability above 700 mb (MUCAPE around
3000 J/kg) with around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Elongated/straight hodographs above 2 km, coupled with midlevel
lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, suggest large hail may accompany any
persistent updrafts. Given strong MLCINH it is uncertain how
persistent this convection may be, though the downstream environment
will continue to destabilize through the afternoon. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed for parts of the MCD area in the
next couple of hours, though timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Smith.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9l3uwKfiQvqrrIH9H4z9I11N-Ha9bGsC_84KlbOjK9Q3Ks1mV6l9zKbQ-JL8U-MyWuNB3WQYM= OQe1z0_1zeY1DchGpU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39969567 39369596 38829646 38539700 38449784 38569834
38829877 39169881 39489835 40079784 40719749 41069699
41219651 41019601 40639574 39969567=20


=3D =3D =3D
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