ACUS11 KWNS 110720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110720=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-110915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern OK into western AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110720Z - 110915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible overnight.
Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A strong elevated storm cluster has evolved across
parts of east-central OK over the last 1-2 hours. This activity is
located within an 850 mb moisture maximum (as diagnosed by the RAP)
and likely being driven by low-level warm advection, with a moderate southwesterly low-level jet noted in the recent OUN VWPs. Modest
midlevel west-northwesterlies are providing sufficient deep-layer
shear for some storm organization, with marginal supercell
structures occasionally being noted.=20

Rather strong elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of greater than 2000
J/kg) will continue to support some hail potential with the
strongest cells, though rather warm temperatures aloft may mitigate
this threat to some extent. Localized downbursts also cannot be
ruled out. The corridor of richer 850 mb moisture will move
northeastward with time, with sustained leftward-moving cells having
the best chance to remain near the moisture axis as it approaches
northeast OK/northwest AR. With the threat expected to remain
isolated, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8MWfr0go8la345iTEPV_H_Ytc22y4TeW8g6iq5hpUUpv8SlE7AG_dRULJfmuFvSVRWJtNQWG= R5zlVtOkX5lHjjAgEw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35639667 35859573 35799451 35629424 35399409 35109434
34929461 34759502 34729538 34829585 34939630 35039667
35259684 35639667=20


=3D =3D =3D
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