ACUS11 KWNS 102325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102325=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...Northern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623...

Valid 102325Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will spread across ww623 this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough
is progressing across the central Dakotas early this evening. This
feature appears partly responsible for scattered convection that has
developed from southeast ND across eastern SD into central NE.
Latest surface data suggests a weak surface low will lift northeast
toward the ND/SD/MN border which should allow the downstream warm
front to advance a bit north over the next few hours. With LLJ
expected to remain focused over eastern SD, scattered supercells
should propagate across the remainder of ww623 over the next several
hours. Deep convection may also spread/develop northeast along the
warm front into portions of west-central MN as low-level warm
advection focuses across this region. MRMS data continues to suggest
large hail accompanies the strongest updrafts. With time, damaging
winds may become more common if a linear MCS evolves.

..Darrow.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8Ls4317hO2s3FJYzVEqS-BZbMd1nMOmJer07ade-KjB3V6HwziYRgE2yEJ_FcCeSx2dUhw-D= fK6oFnlMECQerpslVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43049930 46519912 46519640 43049673 43049930=20


=3D =3D =3D
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