ACUS11 KWNS 102139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102139=20
TXZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102139Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of locally severe gusts will persist through the
afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving across
parts of central Texas this afternoon, where surface temperatures
have climbed into the 105-110 range amid upper 50s/lower 60s
dewpoints. The associated deeply mixed boundary layer (deep
inverted-V thermodynamic profile) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
will support strong to locally severe gusts and possibly
sporadic/marginally severe hail with any stronger updrafts that
develop through the afternoon. Given weak deep-layer flow/shear and
minimal large-scale ascent across the area, updraft longevity and
the potential for organized upscale growth should generally be
limited. Therefore, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5wPrTTPJvpoGXsUMci0GT2WlaDfTfqoQh6C3ca1ns_K01A3-kUC_vcHBJ3prCx2NgPck5Lj2B= MU94kN92f9I9eFvLAs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32260210 32650205 33000177 33280111 33529998 33579939
33589885 33429837 33129828 32879837 32439907 31730037
31490108 31540169 31790200 32260210=20


=3D =3D =3D
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