ACUS11 KWNS 102015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102014=20
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into extreme
northeast Colorado...far southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102014Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind may accompany the
stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation/intensification is underway
across the Higher Terrain of WY/CO. Ahead of the developing storms,
a well-mixed boundary layer has materialized, characterized by 30 F
surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and 9-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates (per 20Z mesoanalysis). Forecast soundings depict around 500
J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE, distributed in roughly the 700-300 mb
layer. Given elongated hodographs, storms that can mature in this
environment may produce a couple instances of severe hail/wind.
However, the severe threat should be sparse and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6pC6wlv0QibnWy2cL2C_86QqzRqf5LAt0tr57by_8oCi-QB0klrRYVYKSl5w7xnUqYRzVRVGC= _3elwKVuzezGim5DqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40140221 40290348 40450419 40930471 41900547 42770588
43240579 43460519 43540445 43400372 43050327 42420276
41750235 40960217 40140221=20


=3D =3D =3D
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