ACUS11 KWNS 101834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101834=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-102030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
Areas affected...southern and central parts of NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 101834Z - 102030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized threat for a weak supercell or two and their
associated hazards will move from west to east across south-central
NJ through 430 pm EDT.
DISCUSSION...A couple of weak supercells have persisted within a
moist/weak unstable airmass across the Mid-Atlantic states early
this afternoon. The KDIX VAD has shown a slight intensification of
flow in the 5-6 km AGL layer in the past hour (+ 5 to 10 kt).=20
Additionally, the low-level hodograph is adequately enlarged to
support at least episodic low-level rotation. The primary hindrance
for a more appreciable severe storm risk continues to be a nearly saturated/poor lapse rate environment in the 3-km to storm top
layer. Nonetheless, the upper 70s temperatures and lower 70s
dewpoints at the surface are contributing to weak buoyancy and a
CAPE profile with characteristics of a tropical cyclone environment
undergoing a tropical to extratropical transition. As a result, a
conditional risk for a brief tornado and/or wind damage will exist
with any robust updraft before moving east of the NJ coast in a
couple of hours.
..Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K0xxdc5EzLvxkIAi1p8r85_vSgQnDukFpTAct1VFpVd6JPH_DK3scE7JiE6RG_WmY2-018fE= wUZCbBFJPhCltdxfQ4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...
LAT...LON 39977508 40247404 39857407 39587425 39467478 39567523
39977508=20
=3D =3D =3D
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