ACUS11 KWNS 100214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100213=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 621...

Valid 100213Z - 100415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 621 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving into northeast Arkansas will
eventually migrate into the mid-Mississippi Valley heading into the
late evening hours. These storms will pose a risk for
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. A downstream
watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...A supercell embedded within the leading edge of a line
of storms continues to propagate to the east/southeast into
northeast AR. This supercell has shown signs of gradual transition a
more organized linear mode (some signs of an organized gust front
are noted in KNQA imagery), but this evolution has been gradual. A strengthening low-level jet will bolster warm air advection over a
residual baroclinic zone that is draped from northeast AR to
northern MS/AL. The expectation over the next few hours is for this
cell to continue to grow upscale amid increasing lift along the
frontal zone, propagating to the southeast into the mid-MS River
Valley. VWP observations at KNQA sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow
as well as 0-1 km SRH near 350 m2/s2 within the warm advection
regime. This kinematic environment will continue to support storm
organization for the next several hours with an attendant risk of
severe winds and perhaps a tornado or two - though the tornado
threat will likely be conditional on the development of a more
organized MCS, which remains uncertain. Regardless, a downstream
watch will likely be needed to address this concern.

..Moore.. 08/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5wSrpuV_1kFH3GTYsjNvbU0l3qg8FOP8w6BhaMmcHI4BLnCD_NijLLWjMsAZrVbfIpv80MU-_= LgIHM78AJH1Z-G4O0Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 36479132 36388985 36098836 35708805 34978807 34448817
34258871 34418958 34789042 35019089 35369151 35659184
35929202 36099203 36249203 36479132=20


=3D =3D =3D
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