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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 10 00:36:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 100036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100035=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-100230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...North Texas to far southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619...

    Valid 100035Z - 100230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds continues across north Texas
    into far southern Oklahoma. However, this threat will gradually
    diminish heading into the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, initial thunderstorms
    developing along a surface trough have shown signs of weakening with
    an average lifespan of around 1-2 hours. Strong winds up to 56 mph
    have been reported as these storms collapsed, but a few instances of
    wind damage have been noted. While the initial cells continue to
    weaken, additional cells are developing along the boundary with
    signs of steady intensification per GOES IR imagery and lightning
    trends. It remains unclear how many additional cells will develop,
    but ongoing/developing storms will slowly migrate east where
    dewpoint depressions are still 40-50 F, indicating that low-level
    thermodynamic profiles remain conducive for strong to severe
    downburst winds. This threat will slowly wane heading into the late
    evening hours as nocturnal cooling steadily increasing low-level
    inhibition. This will relegate the potential for damaging/severe
    downburst winds to the strongest/tallest cells that may have
    sufficient precipitation loading and evaporative cooling to punch
    through the low-level stable layer.

    ..Moore.. 08/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61EaSQbT7h5Ob6ZLBXPrG1rillGGavEJWuT8fquZhxSHG55e8FojT_mRdvdaJCHOTH2tWkc4O= CYfdC-F83TfV_ESR04$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33289605 33109643 32939708 32879782 33039821 33429828
    33669800 34239642 34169612 34049576 33699578 33289605=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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