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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 9 21:00:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092059=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-092330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Montana...southern
    North Dakota...northern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092059Z - 092330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail or wind may occur later
    this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat should remain
    isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, along with sparse areas of convective initiation, are underway ahead of a diffuse trailing cold front from
    extreme eastern MT, eastward along the SD/ND border. Ample heating
    has mixed the boundary layer, with observed upper 70s/low 80s F
    temperatures amid low 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8.5+ C/km
    boundary-layer lapse rates (20Z mesoanalysis). Given the dry
    boundary layer, RAP forecast soundings depict the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    (currently in place) distributed in tall/skinny profiles, though
    unidirectional speed shear is in place. As such, a few multicells or
    transient supercells may become sustained and support an instance or
    two of severe hail/wind. Since the severe threat should be sparse, a
    WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_oF9Uz_MjQaFjishONTR2y6MGO1Ls19moBdXPF2S-8tqCHPk5yB2g0Zy6lLt0gLWwpNLlxirG= jcYk7ZUYQ6XsBr0FVg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47890494 47620358 46419934 46079728 45589689 45069696
    44809822 44880039 45290175 46080364 46640481 47450509
    47890494=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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