ACUS11 KWNS 092031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092031=20
ALZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092031Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing with discrete warm
sector development. Any storm that matures could be accompanied by
all severe hazards. However, the threat appears isolated and A WW
issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Relatively robust convection is attempting to become
established across parts of southern AL while drifting northward
along convective remnant outflow. This storm is maturing while
moving north into an increasingly sheared airmass. Though low-level
shear is not particularly strong, RAP forecast soundings depict
hodographs with modest low-level curvature and upper-level
elongation, supportive of supercell structures. Should convection
persist and further intensify with northward extent, supercells
capable of damaging gusts, severe hail, and perhaps a tornado may
materialize. There is uncertainty in how intense ongoing storms will
become, or many additional storms may form through the afternoon. As
such, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PoHARB2k9LBDOOKDcG0p4a-TFr2doBG-7_t0S2U4UUwOBAU7I1WrPn9cN21AC8ZL6QkusxeU= 5cYTp_9cR0mEu7SnuY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31568631 32068704 32818749 33128721 33258672 33138618
32618559 32368536 31918545 31508559 31568631=20


=3D =3D =3D
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