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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 9 19:12:42 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 091912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091912=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1917
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of central Arkansas...southwest
    Tennessee...northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091912Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A narrow zone near an effective warm front has conditional
    potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should storms develop.
    Uncertainty is high. A watch is possible depending on convective
    trends.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have risen into the low 90s F in northwest Mississippi, just south of an effective warm front. Cumulus
    development has been increasing just southwest of Memphis on visible
    satellite as well. Farther west, into central Arkansas, cumulus has
    also developed south of thicker cloud cover, but vertical
    development has been minimal so far. While ongoing warm advection
    precipitation and associated cloud cover has continued to complicate
    the forecast this afternoon. However, observational trends do
    suggest that these areas would be favorable for tornadoes and
    damaging winds should storms develop and intensify. Storm initiation
    appears most likely in far east-central Arkansas into far northwest
    Mississippi with more uncertain potential farther west. A watch is
    possible.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_40FUqgPrnkSJtSJr0UPojHJtE-YbF31btPrQKPOdTka5yQIbT8zOKZ5Ko5yapzEsA1gObBEs= 3jfotHZeMOVDj6ilXE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34488946 34269060 34219192 34329288 34429309 34629309
    35169214 35239139 35229067 35159004 35058971 34848950
    34638944 34488946=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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