ACUS11 KWNS 091813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091812=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-092045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Minnesota into central and
northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091812Z - 092045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may develop this
afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a diffuse cold front, surface temperatures
have warmed to 80 F amid upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints, with visible
satellite depicting increasing cumulus in addition to ongoing
thunderstorms. Heating of the modestly dry boundary layer supports 8
C/km low-level lapse rates, which will encourage surface-based
convective initiation and a couple of severe gusts/hail with the
stronger storms. The dry boundary layer, overspread by modest
mid-level lapse rates, will support tall/very thin CAPE profiles.
However, stronger northwesterly flow above 700 mb will promote
unidirectional speed-shear/elongated straight hodographs, which may
encourage a few storms to become organized. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mhExaryxPlsmMzqoGFNJsb0XfPlTX066v1afoxRQIq8aPgdYLv5rULVNRsjN93Usjg4dLwWY= qkUDRQQW1Xq1r-jGas$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON 44959493 44979258 45429036 45328858 44918777 44358755
43828815 43628916 43589058 43639238 43709374 43979484
44449526 44959493=20


=3D =3D =3D
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