ACUS11 KWNS 091719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091718=20
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091718Z - 091945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail threat may occur with thunderstorm
clusters across portions of the OH Valley this afternoon. The severe
threat is expected to be isolated and a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm-air advection is underway across
portions of the OH Valley, which is supporting boundary-layer
destabilization. Modifying the ILX 12Z sounding based on current
surface observations reveals 2000 J/kg of tall, thin SBCAPE (given
6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates). Scattered thunderstorms are
developing across central IL in advance of an approaching MCV, which
is providing additional deep-layer ascent. Though widespread cloud
cover should persist through the afternoon, persistent warm air
advection should compensate to promote at least marginal instability
across the OH Valley. As hodographs elongate through the afternoon
with the approaching MCV, a few of the stronger storms may produce a
couple instances of severe hail, and an instance or two of damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out. Given the isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MXCx42LQ51hQ-pDVoHFxt-MKaDA-MGHQQVfWL_t6cnipATsfsXVHgvSYlXmGKL-S7sV6wHLF= D_DMIEgudJZwFIg5Wc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40059046 40948894 41488689 41118520 40728474 39618498
38828564 38408655 38398774 38708905 39019000 40059046=20


=3D =3D =3D
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